| 词汇 | example_english_forecast |
| 释义 | Examples of forecastThese examples are from corpora and from sources on the web. Any opinions in the examples do not represent the opinion of the Cambridge Dictionary editors or of Cambridge University Press or its licensors. Ministers, with reason, remained sceptical of the accuracy of long-term forecasts and the political inflexibility they were designed to encourage. We conclude that it is important to account for both nonlinearity and the behavior of monetary aggregates when forecasting inflation. The model then reasonably forecasts the future evolution of executive and public employment given the current observed situation for our three countries. Although forecasted salary growth rates and deferred compensation appear to be underestimated, forecasted salaries demonstrate little bias for lower-paid public employees. Agents form forecasts of the rate of return to capital assets using least-squares autoregressions on past data. The output-money models are only slightly better than the univariate models, and their event-probability forecasts from the late eighties onward are erratic. However, these forecasts were not realised, further increasing the sense of surprise. Ominous forecasts about our graying population and the next recession. Table 1 presents the correlation matrices, means, and standard deviations for the models forecasting externalizing and internalizing symptoms. However, the means that are optimal relative to squared-error loss are not too far from the actual values being forecasted. Rolling forecasts are forecasts made on the basis of the most recent fraction of the observations available in the sample size. Indeed, as unfolded later in this study, the market dynamics is a result of complex interaction between changing forecasts and investor ratios. Simulations of the adaptive belief system give rise to endogenous switches between forecasts at intervals of varying length. Thus, we thought about ways to improve the accuracy of our forecasts. In fact, parameter stability is desirable in order to obtain good forecasts. The lack of forecasting power of the proposed index possibly comes with one fact. First, the prediction technology, that is, agents' knowledge about preparing and evaluating forecasts, may simply impose such a restriction upon them. Based on this finding, we evaluate the out-of-sample inflation forecasts of a fully nonparametric model for 1994-2002. In the presence of heterogeneity in inflation forecasts, we find, for a relevant range in the initial level of unemployment, that equilibrium expectations are multiple. Demand for the assets of each country is determined by these forecasts. Individuals have preferences and forecasts as to future prices. They have heterogeneous forecasts and are not sure about the beliefs held by other agents. Before the original schedule was derived, each resource monitor forecasted per formance efficiency of their associated resource using regression analysis and or thogonal polynomials. Urban growth in developing countries: a review of current trends and a caution regarding existing forecasts. Modelling spatial variability in insect phenology seasonality forecasting with temperature driven simulation models. In addition, forecasting either kind of variability has an almost immovable difficulty: that the forecasts are in the for m of probabilities. He also wrote on the forecasting power of comets, again a topic where religious belief was, or could be, involved. The proxy for energy-price surprises is then formed by subtracting these forecasts from the actual change in the energy price. The latter are very useful for forecasting turning points and making probabilistic statements about various future outcomes. Private firms are definitely feeling the pinch, particularly those that have not built tax provisions into their business forecasts. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the out-of-sample forecasts. In addition, we explore the use of optimally combined forecasts. We are interested in quantifying the extent to which these nonlinearities can be exploited to improve out-of-sample forecasts. There hasn't been much academic interest in getting into the practical minutiae of forecasting well in real time. Initial forecasts were for world-wide capital spending in the region of $1 billion between 1986 and 1992. Cost-effectiveness studies, in order to produce enough factual evidence for supporting the statements and forecasts given in what follows. Therefore, the assessment of the error to be expected in the future was based on baseline (or naive) forecasts. Table 2 displays the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision. Finally, the conditional moments of the excess returns are obtained from forecasts of the mean and volatility of the dynamic factor. The question addressed in this paper, then, is whether the presence of parameter instability can explain the poor out-of-sample forecasts of the economic models. Using money instead of (or as well as) the spread does not improve forecasts. One alternative may be to consider the concept for actual out-of-sample forecasts. Section 2 explains why we focus on predicting recessions, and it also describes the calculation and evaluation of event forecasts. Overall, our results are similar to those in the literature that relate to the accuracy of multistep-ahead point forecasts of univariate models of output. We find that, in some cases, taking time variation in the parameters into account is capable of improving forecasts relative to the random walk. In fact, the random walk model is not an economic model and, thus, it is worrisome that it forecasts better than economic models. Indeed, a close examination of the individual forecasts reveals some quite profound differences about where economic growth was expected to come from. If economic time series were chaotic in this sense, there would be little trouble in forecasting their future values! Currently, we rely on our annual statistics for the year 2002, and forecasts are made for 2003 and beyond. Spitters (1989) stated that forecasting seedling flushes could be improved by introducing more causality in his simulation model. As a result its early economic forecasts of modest employment growth and relative price stability proved inaccurate. Future productivity changes also are not included in lifetime forecasts of earnings (26). The task of forecasting the subcomponents, under the restriction of long-run constancy of the total investment share, yields a relatively simple example for nonlinear cointegration. Marketing is therefore aimed at the creation of sub-categories based on lifestyle by providing forecasts of trends in behaviour, values, love life, and so on. Absent a truly interactive process between expenditure forecasts, revenue forecasts and fiscal policy constraints, loyalty to the ceiling will be at best uncertain. A multivariate transfer function is an intellectually and technically valid approach to modeling and forecasting a linear system where the input can be measured. On the basis of these forecasts, the agent makes her optimal portfolio decision. The present paper further develops this approach by considering a different set of forecasts and aims at characterizing such instability. Finally, we investigate whether there is still forecastable structure in realized market prices that could have been exploited by smart subjects to improve their forecasts. The realized market price is determined by aggregation over six individual price forecasts. Agents then maximize utility, assuming that the economy evolves according to the forecasts from the selected forecasting model. We finish by evaluating the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasts of threshold models. We therefore consider next the forecasts from a parametric nonlinear model, the threshold model. Similarly, good short-run forecasts for the unemployment rate may be obtained from models that imply a longer-run rate below zero or above 50%. However, since the fertility rates are not normally distributed around 1.4, the median projection of the predictive distribution is not identical with the point forecasts. Conditional forecasts for the time period 1967:1 to 1993:12 are constructed for three asset groups and for two time horizons. Second, money has forecasting information for inflation primarily at long horizons. Finally, we want to study whether cross-country information helps in forecasting domestic inflation rates. Do real marginal costs help in forecasting inflation? Ultimately, forecasts of excess returns can be obtained from forecasts of the mean and volatility of the stock market index. We also explore whether it is possible to improve forecasts by explicitly taking into account the presence of parameter instability. Nevertheless, the subjects do exhibit heterogeneity in their forecasts. Furthermore, the market forecasts will evolve as the proportions of fundamentalists and chartists change over time. Nevertheless, the study shows that prediction rules derived from simple and straightforward use of monthly weather variables alone might not produce accurate forecasts. Even so, it is evident from examining the forecasts of our non-trended variables that very conservative forecasts resulted centering on the intercept term. How relevant is volatility forecasting for financial risk management? To the extent that these impacts can be forecasted, defensive actions can be better planned and implemented. By climate forecasts we mean the prediction of the probability distribution of future weather conditions several months ahead. The remainder of the book focuses on the central theme of the book-the economic valuation of meteorological forecasts. Thus, individually, the series would not be forecasted easily and the conventional wisdom of several years ago would have dictated first differencing each series. A nonparametric test is used to evaluate the value of expected arbitrage forecasts implied by the structure of the model. We have explored the usefulness of the index in forecasting six prominent macroeconomic variables. However, although we find statistical significance, it would be wrong to conclude that we find economically significant improvements in forecasts. First, forecasting macroeconomic aggregates is of obvious utility to business and policymakers, and yet, the track record of economic forecasters is mixed. All methods seem to give at least plausible forecasts. When snow fell during a mission in the summer of 1650 it was interpreted as a divine sign forecasting the mission's success. While they may often be approximately right in aggregate, these forecasts are often wrong in the individual family. Economic forecasts in the late 1970s were for unemployment to continue to rise in the 1980s. Official forecasts put the total deficit in the three years 1946 - 8 at £1250 million. The field as it exists, particularly one as new and expanding as this one, may not be an adequate basis for forecasting future trends. Before proceeding with forecasting the impact of climate in the region, we need to establish a quantitative link between local climate determinants and their impacts. Our forecasting simulation looks at a 20-year time horizon for the development of yields in non-hybrids crops under the two scenarios. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models. Variance forecasts for prices are constructed in the following way. Finally, good policy-making typically depends on sound economic forecasts, which can be valuable to policymakers. Technical developments in agriculture, economic and social changes, and population increases are taken into account in forecasting future world food suciency. Their grasp of social realities cannot then inform either forecasts or speculation. In forecasting future theoretical developments, a conservative estimate is that some progress will be made by importing theoretical advances from neighboring fields. First, fertilizer application should be made based on weather forecasts in an effort to reduce or avoid initial losses. Voters must, therefore, make forecasts about elections and decide how much confidence to place in those forecasts. These examples are from corpora and from sources on the web. Any opinions in the examples do not represent the opinion of the Cambridge Dictionary editors or of Cambridge University Press or its licensors. |
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